The Truth Behind the Rise in Coffee Bean Prices: Who is Reaping the Benefits of Your Life - Saving Coffee?

The first cup of coffee in the morning is a "life - saving magic weapon" for many people. But have you noticed that the price of the same cup of Americano sometimes remains stable and sometimes fluctuates? The price of ordinary coffee beans hides a complex chain from the origin to the cup. Today, let's lift this mysterious veil.

Today, with the prevalence of specialty coffee, ordinary commercial coffee beans still account for more than 70% of the global consumption. These beans are usually produced in large - scale plantations, processed mechanically, with relatively balanced flavors but lacking uniqueness. Mr. Zhang, who has been running a community coffee shop for five years,: "We use ordinary Arabica beans, and the unit price has been stable at 30 - 50 yuan per kilogram, but it suddenly rose to 80 yuan last year, and we almost had to change suppliers."

• The Butterfly Effect of Climate: A frost in Brazil or continuous rainfall in Colombia can cause the futures market to rise. When Brazil's production decreased in 2021, the global coffee bean price doubled directly.
• The Underlying Current of Transportation Costs: Fluctuations in international oil prices directly affect shipping costs. Ms. Li's baking workshop's account book shows that the proportion of logistics costs soared from 12% to 19% in 2022.
• The Seesaw of Supply - Demand Relationship: The growth of consumption in emerging markets and the "home - coffee" boom in Europe and the United States have pushed the global annual consumption to exceed 160 million bags, but the production growth rate is only 2% - 3%.
• The Mark - Ups at Intermediate Links: From coffee farmers to consumers, it has to go through at least 3 - 5 links such as traders, roasters, and retailers, and the gross profit of each link is about 15% - 30%.

Facing cost pressures, the industry is quietly changing. The Yunnan production area has increased the income of coffee farmers by 20% through the cooperative model, and equipment manufacturers such as Zhongshitong have launched intelligent coffee roasters, allowing small shops to directly purchase raw beans and skip roasters. "Roasting raw beans by ourselves now can reduce the cost of each cup by 1.5 yuan," Mr. Zhang shows his new equipment.

Experts predict that with the increase in the production of Robusta beans in Vietnam and the development of new production areas in Africa, the price may drop by 10% - 15% in 2024. However, the long - term threat of climate change still exists, and sustainable cultivation has become a compulsory course for production areas. Perhaps, when measuring the value of a cup of coffee in the future, we should not only look at the price tag but also consider the reasonable returns of each link behind it.

What is your daily coffee budget? Are you willing to pay a premium for supply - chain transparency? Welcome to share your "coffee economics" in the comment section.