Has the era of huge profits in refined oil exports come to an end?

In the late - night port, a ten - thousand - ton oil tanker slowly docks. Operator Mr. Zhang stares at the jumping numbers on the dashboard and says to the other end of the phone, "The export quota for this batch of diesel has been approved." After hanging up the phone, he looks at the moonlight reflected on the pitch - black oil surface and remembers Ms. Li's question last week: "How can ordinary people get a share of the refined oil export pie?"

In 2023, the global refined oil trade volume exceeded 1.2 billion tons, with the Asian market accounting for 38%. As the world's second - largest oil - refining country, China's export volume of products such as diesel and jet fuel has maintained an annual growth rate of over 6% for five consecutive years. Different from the monopoly of giants in the crude oil trade, there are a large number of small and medium - sized trade opportunities in the refined oil export field:

• Regional supply - demand imbalance creates arbitrage space

• Differences in environmental protection standards among countries form a price gradient

• The new regulations on marine fuel have spurred the demand for low - sulfur oil

At a certain industry exchange meeting, Mr. Zhang showed Ms. Li a flowchart:

Qualification acquisition → Resource docking → Logistics execution

First, it is necessary to obtain the refined oil export qualification approved by the Ministry of Commerce, or cooperate with an enterprise holding the qualification. Professional institutions such as Zhongshitong can provide compliance review services. On the resource side, both the refinery supply and overseas buyers need to be locked in, usually with an advance payment guarantee or letter of credit as collateral. The most critical logistics link involves 15 sub - steps such as chartering a ship, customs declaration, and quality inspection. Any mistake may lead to the rejection of the entire ship's cargo.

Ms. Li encountered the problem of bill of lading non - compliance in her first attempt and lost a $170,000 deposit. Common traps in the industry include:

• False "guaranteed purchase agreement"

• Bio - diesel blending that does not meet ISCC certification

• The seasonal order - cutting practice of Middle - Eastern buyers

Professional agency institutions will recommend adopting "the 3 - 3 - 3 system" risk control: 30% advance payment, 30% payment upon seeing the bill of lading, and 40% payment upon arrival at the port. At the same time, it is necessary to purchase P&I insurance to cover transportation risks, especially the frequent emergencies on the Red Sea route recently.

With the deepening implementation of the RCEP agreement, the import tariffs on refined oil in Southeast Asian countries have generally decreased by 3 - 5 percentage points. After the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area, the gasoline import demand in countries such as Nigeria has surged by 47%. However, industry insiders warn that the carbon border tax that the EU will implement in 2025 may increase an additional cost of $8 - 12 per ton.

When Mr. Zhang saw Ms. Li again, she had formed her own cross - border trade team. Looking at the blinking vessel position monitoring system on the computer screen, she suddenly asked, "Do you think the next wave of opportunities will be in hydrogen energy trade?" The alarm sound in the oil tank area rang out, and this question drifted over the dock with the morning mist...